The Buffalo Bills enter the NFL season as the outright betting favorite for the first time since 1991, as the franchise continues to pursue its first Super Bowl title.
The Bills are listed at +600 at Caesars Sportsbook ahead of their season opener Thursday night against the defending champion Los Angeles Rams.
“We really think the Bills are the highest-power-rated team, but just as important is where they play,” SuperBook executive director and oddsmaker John Murray told ESPN. “The philosophy is that the AFC West teams will beat each other up and that will allow the Bills to be in a favorable position to have the AFC Championship Game running through Buffalo.”
Caesars Sportsbook vice president of trading Craig Mucklow told ESPN: “With a rebuilding AFC East, the Bills are almost a certain lock for the playoffs and the clear front-runner for home field in January, which will make them a tough out for any visiting team.”
Following the Bills, the AFC West accounts for the next three teams in the conference with the shortest Super Bowl odds: the Kansas City Chiefs (11-1), Los Angeles Chargers (14-1) and Denver Broncos (16-1). Along with the Las Vegas Raiders (30-1), all four AFC West teams rank among the top seven for most Super Bowl bets, in terms of ticket volume, at Caesars. No other division has even three teams in the top 15.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at +750, are the second overall Super Bowl favorite, followed by the Rams (11-1) and Green Bay Packers (12-1) in the NFC. A large reason for that is the high volume of wagers they drew during Tom Brady‘s brief retirement at 40-1 odds and their overall popularity at the betting window.
“They’re a team that takes money all year long,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN, sharing that he would rate Tampa Bay at 10-1 odds in a vacuum, if not for the heavy action it received all offseason.
The Raiders and Philadelphia Eagles have also received noteworthy attention. This week, the Eagles (+130) surpassed the Dallas Cowboys (+135) as the NFC East favorite at most sportsbooks. Mucklow attributed it to “very sharp money” over the weekend, although Avello noted that the Eagles support has come from both “sophisticated and unsophisticated” bettors.
“The big surprise so far is the love we’ve seen for the Raiders nationally and not just in Las Vegas,” Mucklow said. “They’re our biggest liability going into the season, and their 4-0 preseason gave the betting public even more reason to bet on the silver and black.”
The Raiders made significant changes this offseason, hiring coach Josh McDaniels and overhauling the front office. On the field, Vegas added a five-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Davante Adams and two-time All-Pro defensive end Chandler Jonesamong others.
“Any time a team makes a splash in any sport, it’s going to draw a lot of attention. The Raiders added some sexy names, and people want to talk themselves into it,” Murray said. “But the problem is that the AFC West looks like the best division ever. I know it sounds like hyperbole, but I don’t think it is.”
The Cincinnati Bengals entered last season as 125-1 long shots and reached the Super Bowl. The longest odds of a Super Bowl champion over the past 22 years are the 2001 New England Patriots (60-1) and 2007 New York Giants (30-1).